[1]许 晨,季 杰,周卫忠,等.经皮肝穿刺胆道支架植入术后高淀粉酶血症及急性胰腺炎临床预测模型的建立与验证[J].介入放射学杂志,2021,30(10):1015-1019.
 XU Chen,JI Jie,ZHOU Weizhong,et al.Development and validation of the prediction model for hyperamylasemia and acute pancreatitis after percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent insertion[J].journal interventional radiology,2021,30(10):1015-1019.
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经皮肝穿刺胆道支架植入术后高淀粉酶血症及急性胰腺炎临床预测模型的建立与验证()

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《介入放射学杂志》[ISSN:1008-794X/CN:31-1796/R]

卷:
30
期数:
2021年10
页码:
1015-1019
栏目:
非血管介入
出版日期:
2021-10-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Development and validation of the prediction model for hyperamylasemia and acute pancreatitis after percutaneous transhepatic biliary stent insertion
作者:
许 晨 季 杰 周卫忠 杨 魏 刘 圣 施海彬
Author(s):
XU Chen JI Jie ZHOU Weizhong YANG Wei LIU Sheng SHI Haibin.
Department of Interventional Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province 210029, China
关键词:
【关键词】 Nomogram预测模型 经皮肝穿刺胆道支架植入术 高淀粉酶血症 急性胰腺炎 恶性胆道梗阻
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
【摘要】 目的 建立并验证恶性胆道梗阻(MBO)患者行经皮肝穿刺胆道支架植入(PTBS)术后高淀粉酶血症及急性胰腺炎的临床预测模型。方法 回顾性分析2016年3月至2020年6月于南京医科大学第一附属医院接受PTBS治疗的302例MBO患者的临床资料。采用单因素及多因素logistic回归分析独立危险因素,根据结果构建Nomogram模型。采用ROC曲线法和加强Bootstrap法对模型的预测价值进行验证,采用临床决策曲线(DCA)对模型的临床获益进行评估。结果 多因素logistic回归分析显示患者年龄、125I粒子条植入、术中胰管显影以及支架跨十二指肠乳头释放是术后发生高淀粉酶血症及急性胰腺炎的独立危险因素。ROC曲线显示Nomogram模型区分度良好(AUC=0.781±0.031;95%CI:0.720~0.841)。加强Bootstrap校准图形中标准曲线与校准预测曲线贴合,表明模型的校准度良好。DCA曲线显示模型具有潜在的临床应用价值。结论 针对MBO患者,PTBS术后高淀粉酶血症及急性胰腺炎发生风险的Nomogram预测模型成功建立。模型验证表现良好,可以较准确地预测其发生风险并及时辨别高危患者。

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
(收稿日期:2020-08-09)
(本文编辑:俞瑞纲)
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-10-13